Early this week, I was hanging out with my ex-colleagues over dinner and they were curious to know, why I am moving from large engine diesel business and my views on future of large diesel engines.
I started answering the later question first.
Diesel engines are here to stay and as I mentioned in one of my earlier blogs, it will be a shame if diesel is abandoned. However, in my opinion, diesel engines for large applications (eg. Marine, Locomotive, Mining, etc.,) may not see large investments in new technology development (common rail or similar). Reasons are high development costs compared to alternative solutions and also the sales volumes which are a fraction of automotive volumes, does not provide an industry average ROI. Not to mention, the increasing social stigma and the hype around electric vehicles.
Several of leading large engine OEMs are working or already have tested alternative solutions such as gas, dual fuel, electric engines to meet emission regulations. Also, from industrial fairs such CIMAC, I have got the feeling that the companies are pushing the governments for infrastructure spending to increase usage of alternative solutions.
Large diesel engines will still be produced, but with twisted and tweaked mechanical and electrical fuel systems. These engines, will be mostly used in less regulated markets and areas.
From my perspective, car and truck companies should continue improving the state-of-art diesel engines to meet emission regulations. I am sure given the current maturity of the technology combined with sales demand in millions and cost of diesel, ROI for both for customers and OEMs, will be reasonable for few more years. However regulations such as banning diesel vehicles from cities and highly subsidizing electric vehicles, might change my wishful thinking!!
At the end of the evening, I did not had to answer the first question.