Category: Industry & Technology

Large Diesel Engines

Early this week, I was hanging out with my ex-colleagues over dinner and they were curious to know, why I am moving from large engine diesel business and my views on future of large diesel engines.

I started answering the later question first.

Diesel engines are here to stay and as I mentioned in one of my earlier blogs, it will be a shame if diesel is abandoned. However, in my opinion, diesel engines for large applications (eg. Marine, Locomotive, Mining, etc.,) may not see large investments in new technology development (common rail or similar). Reasons are high development costs compared to alternative solutions and also the sales volumes which are a fraction of automotive volumes, does not provide an industry average ROI. Not to mention, the increasing social stigma and the hype around electric vehicles.

Several of leading large engine OEMs are working or already have tested alternative solutions such as gas, dual fuel, electric engines to meet emission regulations. Also, from industrial fairs such CIMAC, I have got the feeling that the companies are pushing the governments for infrastructure spending to increase usage of alternative solutions.

Large diesel engines will still be produced, but with twisted and tweaked mechanical and electrical fuel systems. These engines, will be mostly used in less regulated markets and areas.

From my perspective, car and truck companies should continue improving the state-of-art diesel engines to meet emission regulations. I am sure given the current maturity of the technology combined with sales demand in millions and cost of diesel, ROI for both for customers and OEMs, will be reasonable for few more years. However regulations such as banning diesel vehicles from cities and highly subsidizing electric vehicles, might change my wishful thinking!!

At the end of the evening, I did not had to answer the first question.

 

 

 

 

Poor Diesel

During my post graduation days in Germany, I have heard that alternative fuel (fuel cell, battery) will be the future in automotive and industrial application and that it is the sector to invest as well as to work in. However, I had a different opinion, for two reasons.

First, the traditional (gas and diesel) engines along with oil extraction methods have been regularly optimized with large investments (upfront or later like in case of VW) to meet emissions levels as well as needs of price sensitive consumers. Given the availability of fossil fuel, technology and reasonable cost structure, there will be less motivation for the OEMs to change the gears and adapt alternative fuel. My favorite sentence used to be that car manufacturers’ will hang-in there with their diesel engines till the last drop is burnt, to leverage what is available.

Secondly, there used to be very less information how production and disposal of alternative fuel impact our environment. Still looking for information in layman’s terms.

However, disruptors like Tesla and its Giga factories, have forced the traditional automotive and engine OEMs to adapt alternative technologies and that too in a super fast modus.

On one hand I really hope that new trend of electrification and fuel cells has an positive impact our environment. On the other hand, I believe that there are several other factors which contribute towards environmental pollution and our greed is the initiator, hence it will be a shame and surprising if all OEMs give up on diesel, as long as it is available at current cost levels and there are technologies which makes it cleaner.

Food for thought regarding greed: We all can contribute to well being of our environment by consuming less……smaller cars, less packaging, not wasting food and water. Remember: No Pain – No Gain